Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Breakout Probability model work?
Our proprietary XGBoost model ingests historical performance data, draft capital, injury risk, positional market weight, and minor/college level metrics. It compares current prospects to historical data over the last decade to predict breakout trajectories.
Where do you get your data?
We aggregate data from official league and statistical data providers and cross-reference them with third-party pricing APIs and PSA population reports to fuse athletic performance with market dynamics.
How often is the data updated?
The machine learning models are re-trained and updated nightly at 3:00 AM EST to reflect the previous day's games, injuries, and market fluctuations.
What's the difference between my Watchlist and my Portfolio?
Your Watchlist is your discovery tool for tracking players you don't own yet—it alerts you when a player's breakout probability spikes so you know what to buy. Your Portfolio is your asset management tool for the cards you already own—it tracks your specific purchases (like a Prizm Silver PSA 10) and calculates your current Return on Investment (ROI) to help you decide when to sell.
Why do "No Brainer" players show a low Breakout Probability score?
Breakout Probability measures how likely a player is to break out soon — it's a timing signal, not a measure of quality. A No Brainer is, by definition, a player who has already broken out: a proven, established star with nothing left to predict, so there's no "upcoming breakout" for the score to capture. Instead, our No Brainers page ranks players by career-proven star power — the safest, most decorated names to own regardless of short-term timing. A low Breakout Probability next to a high No Brainer ranking isn't a contradiction; they're two different questions: "is a breakout still coming?" versus "how good is this player, period?"
What are "Historical Comparables," and how do the Active Players / HOF tabs differ?
Every player profile shows up to 10 Historical Comparables in two tabs. The Active Players tab (shown by default) lists current stars with a similar statistical profile — useful for gauging where a player stacks up against the league right now. The HOF tab lists inducted Hall of Famers whose numbers most closely matched this player's at the same early-career stage (their rookie season or an equivalent benchmark, not a Hall of Famer's final career totals) — a purpose-built shortlist of the legends every prospect gets measured against.
Comparables are omitted entirely for a player who hasn't broken out yet and is currently performing too poorly for either comparison to be meaningful — there's no useful "similar star" or "matching Hall of Famer" to show until they have a real track record to compare.